The hottest Henan actually affects the electrolyti

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Henan's actual impact on the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 683000 tons. The curtain of limiting electrolytic aluminum production in the heating season opens

with the advent of limiting production in the heating season on November 15, Henan, as a major electrolytic aluminum Province, officially entered the rhythm of limiting production. Recently, a number of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, including Jiaozuo Wanfang, have announced their production restriction plans. Then, with the advent of limited production in the heating season, can the electrolytic aluminum price, which has been running at a high level before, reach a new high

In September 2017, the Henan provincial government issued the implementation plan for peak staggering production of industrial enterprises in autumn and winter of Henan Province (hereinafter referred to as the "plan"). According to the requirements of the plan, the peak staggering production of nonferrous industry in Henan Province in this heating season mainly includes electrolytic aluminum, alumina, carbon and nonferrous recycling enterprises, This indicates that the abnormality of the dissolution activity rate tester system is caused by changes in the laboratory, and the clear peak staggering time is from November 15, 2017 to March 15, 2018

as the deadline for limiting production in the heating season has come, how are the enterprises involved in limiting production performing now

on November 14, it was learned from the relevant person in charge of Zhongfu industry that at present, Zhongfu industry has strictly implemented the "30% production limit" of Henan provincial government, but the cost is high

previously, Jiaozuo Wanfang, a major electrolytic aluminum producer in Henan, has also disclosed its production reduction plan. On October 28, Jiaozuo Wanfang issued a production restriction announcement. According to the announcement, on October 27, Jiaozuo Wanfang received the relevant notice from Jiaozuo City, requiring the company to implement the production restriction 3, which is usually called the boundary lubrication 0% measure (based on the number of electrolytic cells) from the date of printing and distributing the document. The electrolytic cells will be stopped in place before October 31, and the production restriction 30% measure will be fully implemented from November 1

according to Jiaozuo Wanfang's announcement, Jiaozuo Wanfang's electrolytic aluminum products will be reduced by 55000 tons during the whole peak shift production period

in addition, it is understood that Yugang Longquan and Wanji aluminum, which are involved in limiting production during the heating season, have begun to reduce production. On November 14, lihongwei, the Board Secretary of Shenhuo shares, told that the relevant electrolytic aluminum production capacity of Shenhuo shares in Yongcheng had been voluntarily shut down in 2008, so the production restriction in the heating season did not involve the production capacity of Shenhuo shares in Yongcheng area

according to the data provided by zhuochuang, the current operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Henan is 2.88 million tons, and the production restriction policy is strictly implemented throughout the heating season. According to the number of electrolytic cells, the actual operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 683000 tons. It is expected to affect the output of 226000 tons in four months, 88000 tons in the heating season of 2017 and 138000 tons in the next year. However, considering the cycle of electrolytic aluminum production resumption, the actual output will be higher

in fact, due to the coming of the heating season, not only electrolytic aluminum, but also alumina production capacity will be limited. According to zhuochuang's monitoring data, the production limit of alumina in Henan Province in the heating season is about 3.78 million tons according to the 30% production limit benchmark

under the background of production restriction, aluminum prices will still operate at a high level

with the arrival of production restriction in the heating season on November 15, and the promotion of production restriction plans of various aluminum enterprises, the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum will decline again

according to the calculation, the domestic alumina production capacity will be reduced by 12million tons, the monthly output will be reduced by 1million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum, as the downstream product of alumina, will be reduced by 500000 tons, and the deformation of materials will be significantly increased by tons. In addition, during the production restriction period, it is expected that 3.94 million tons of anode capacity will be shut down, and the monthly output will be reduced by 330000 tons, corresponding to 660000 tons of electrolytic aluminum

in the research report forecast given by zhuochuang information, only the changes in the supply and demand structure brought about by the limited production in Henan region are considered. From the analysis of the later change, the alumina supply in Henan region will be short of about 1.09 million tons

it should be noted that since August this year, aluminum prices have started to soar. As of October 2017, the average market price of aluminum ingots was 16217.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.69% over the average price of 14265 yuan/ton on August 1, an increase of 18.22% over the average market price of 13717.5 yuan/ton on June 30, and an increase of 24.99% over the average price of 12975 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year

under the background of limited production, according to the general expectation of the market, the aluminum price before and after the heating season should be kept at 16000-17000 yuan/ton, and may even exceed 18000 yuan/ton during the heating season, but at present, the result may be difficult to meet the expectation

on November 8, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was reported at 15675 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton from the opening, far from the high of more than 17000 yuan/ton in September. This is not consistent with the positive factors of limited production

In an interview with this newspaper, the aluminum industry analyst of business club said that the decline in aluminum price is, to a certain extent, a psychological reaction of the market to the full benefit of limiting production. As for the trend of aluminum price in the later stage, we should focus on the intensity and progress of limiting production after November 15. If the implementation of production reduction is normal, the short-term price will stop falling and rebound

as for the trend of aluminum price in the whole heating season, liulibin, executive vice president of Henan Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said: "with the advent of the limited production season, the expectation of pushing up aluminum price in the early stage has been released. From the current situation, aluminum price will not fluctuate greatly in the whole heating season, and will still remain at a relatively high level."

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