Analysis on the pattern and trend of China's cultu

Analysis on the pattern and trend of China's cultural paper industry in 2020

release date: Source: Huajing intelligence

I. overview of cultural paper

cultural paper refers to writing and printing paper used to disseminate cultural knowledge, which is suitable for printing books, textbooks, magazines, notebooks, color pictures, etc., mainly including coated paper, writing paper, double offset paper, light coated paper and paper, etc. According to the data of China Paper Association, cultural paper accounted for 23.22% of the national consumption of paper and paperboard in 2019

compared with packaging paper, special paper has a strong rigid demand attribute and is less affected by the external economic environment and downstream manufacturing industry. For example, the scale of China's book market continues to expand, which is the largest ballast of China's cultural paper market. In, the total retail sales of books in China rose from 36.9 billion to 102.27 billion, and the scale of the retail market has more than doubled. In particular, after the liberalization of the two-child policy, the number of new students increased significantly from 2016 to 2017, and the number of students enrolled in the next few years showed an increasing trend, which has a good support for the demand for teaching materials and teaching aids; On the other hand, the consumption of Party and government periodicals has increased significantly in recent years, especially in 2021, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the party, and the propaganda paper has an increasing trend. These factors will promote the stable and upward growth of the cultural paper market

second, the market competition pattern

in recent years, due to the rapid development of network media and the relative decline of traditional media, the cultural paper market has gradually appeared polarization. Among them, the paper output gradually decreased with the decline of newspapers. The paper output in 2019 was 1.5 million tons, less than half of that in 2012. In contrast, as the main force of publishing printed matter, the output of printing and writing paper has remained between 10000 tons. Coated printing paper is often used for business printing, such as exhibitions, real estate, catering and other fields. These downstream fields are closely related to the activity of commercial activities, so the demand has decreased under the background of large downward pressure on the economy in

from the perspective of competition among enterprises, both the double offset paper and coated paper market are in the stage of rapid increase in concentration. According to the production capacity statistics, at present, the proportion of double offset paper Cr4 is 58.2%, and the production capacity of Chenming, Taiyang, Huatai and Asia Pacific Senbo is 28.6%, 14.6%, 9.4% and 5.6% respectively. The entry threshold of cultural paper is higher than that of packaging paper, and the advantages of raw materials and manufacturing are more prominent. In particular, the raw materials of large factories shall be tightened in time; The material supply and manufacturing capacity are gradually widening the gap with small factories. The production expansion of large factories is not stopped, and the liquidation of small production capacity will become one of the trends of the future development of the industry

III. Changes in raw material prices

pulp is the most important raw material in the paper industry. On the one hand, the price of pulp is affected by the fluctuations in the price of raw materials such as waste paper, but also by downstream demand. As for the demand for cultural paper, the COVID-19 in 2020 actually delayed the opening of primary and secondary schools, and the market demand around March of previous years was delayed. At the same time, due to the relatively lagging progress of pulp production resumption compared with the downstream industry, the pulp price rose slightly next month due to the superposition of multiple factors. On the other hand, since the autumn of 2019, textbooks for all grades in primary and secondary schools across the country have been uniformly used. The Ministry's edited textbooks are firmly optimistic about electrolytic aluminum supply and transformation and new energy materials. The subjects involved include language, history and morality, which have achieved comprehensive expansion and rule of law in military aircraft manufacturing. The revision of teaching materials has increased the overall printing volume. At the same time, the relevant teaching auxiliary materials also need to be reprinted, which has increased the overall paper demand, which has led to the rise of pulp prices in early September, which is a negative impact on cultural paper enterprises

IV. the impact of the epidemic on the cultural paper industry

the COVID-19 in 2020 has significantly reduced the revenue of most cultural publishing enterprises, especially the increase in home time, which is not conducive to the sales of physical books. The obstruction of the export market of cultural paper has led to the transfer of some export orders to domestic sales, which is also a reason for the increase of domestic market pressure. Due to the impact of the epidemic in western countries, the import of coated paper in China has increased, mainly because the epidemic is spreading all over the world, and each country and region's own needs and port logistics have been greatly impacted. It is difficult to export to other countries, but exporting to China is a relatively good choice. The rapid development of the epidemic in foreign countries has an impact on logistics and demand, which in turn affects China's exports. The export market is blocked, forcing the paper mills to switch exports to domestic sales, which is also a major reason for the increase in domestic market pressure

for a long time and even into other failure situations, the cultural paper market will still be in a tight balance between supply and demand. Coated paper is greatly impacted by macroeconomic pressure and electronic media, and the overall demand is reduced. However, benefiting from the high concentration of the cultural paper market, when the demand decreases, upstream enterprises usually adjust the direction in time and switch to other kinds of paper to maintain the supply and demand balance of the cultural paper market